Featured Post

Dr. Jamie Courter is your Mizzou Beef Genetics Extension Specialist

Image
By Jared E. Decker Many of you have probably noticed that things have been a lot less active on the A Steak in Genomics™   blog, but you probably haven't known why. In January 2021, I was named the Wurdack Chair in Animal Genomics at Mizzou, and I now focus on research, with a little bit of teaching. I no longer have an extension appointment. But, with exciting news, the blog is about to become a lot more active! Jamie Courter began as the new MU Extension state beef genetics specialist in the Division of Animal Sciences on September 1, 2023. I have known Jamie for several years, meeting her at BIF when she was a Masters student. I have been impressed by Jamie in my interactions with her since that time.  Dr. Courter and I have been working closely together the last 6 weeks, and I am excited to work together to serve the beef industry for years to come! Jamie holds a bachelor’s degree in animal science from North Carolina State University and earned a master's degree in animal

Thompson Research Center Field Day: Economic Opportunities for Missouri Cattle Producers Facing Lower Cattle Prices

“Supply and Demand works!” said Scott Brown at the Thompson Research Center Field Day. We have seen huge increases in meat production in the last two years. In 2014, we saw record cattle prices. Beef producers saw high prices, so they produced more beef. This of course lead to lower cattle prices.
The strengthening dollar has also lead to fewer beef exports. Lots of beef production but very little exports. We may not be done with lower cattle prices. A $1.10 looked a lot better on the way up than on the way down.
“Scott, where is the bottom at? Guys, if I knew where the bottom was at I’d be rich by now” Brown said.
If you had bought LRP or futures in the spring, you would be much happier right now.

When comparing 2008 to 2016 cattle inventory, it looks like Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri still have a lot of room left to grow.

If you look at cattle return for 2016, it is the 8th or 9th highest all time. In 2015, cow-calf producers were still in charge. Now, the cow-calf producer is only seeing 65% of the value, compared to 90% in 2015.

We may be starting to find the bottom. Fundamentals suggest we might see higher prices, but there is still considerable down turn risk.

Do you have a marketing plan? Doing the same thing year after year is a plan, but it sure isn’t responsive to the market.

Is it a strategy to reduce risk to focus on cattle that grade higher? Prime has stayed strong over time.
There is a lot of volatility in the Choice-Select spread. CAB-Select spread continues to be a premium, but the Prime-Select spread continues to be the strongest premium. New products for consumers also provide premiums, especially for early adopters. It pays in the long haul to focus on what consumers want.

Prime boxed beef prices has remained flat in 2016, while Choice and Select boxed beef prices have declined all year.

Supply is not very responsive to negative returns due to fixed costs.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Show-Me-Select Board Approves Genomic Testing Requirement for Natural Service Sires

New Show-Me-Select Sire EPD Requirements Announced

Bob Hough Comments on Changes at Breed Associations